1 million simulations… Ohtani 60-homer probability is smaller than LAA fall baseball

The Los Angeles Angels close out the first half of the season with a two-game road series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Aug. 8-9.

The Angels need to win both games to have any chance of turning things around after the All-Star break. The Angels, who are 4-11 in their last 15 games, are 45-44 and are less than a half-game out of first place. They are third in the AL West and sixth for the wild card. They are 6.5 games back of the division-leading Texas Rangers and 3.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees for the third wild card spot.

It’s still too early to get your playoff hopes up, but FanGraphs gives the Angels a 16.8% chance of making the playoffs. That’s a statistical prediction that’s hard to get excited about. Until the 19th of last month, the Angels were 41-33, in second place in the division and the second wild card, with their first fall baseball hopes in nine years.

This is where the Shohei Ohtani trade comes into play. Most media outlets suggest that the Angels would actually benefit from trading Ohtani. However, it’s also true that the Angels can’t let go of Otani.

In an article titled “Why the Angels are unlikely to trade Ohtani,” MLB.com wrote on July 7, “If the Angels wanted to maximize Ohtani’s trade value, they should have done it last year when they had no playoff hopes. He would have been more than a year away from free agency and would have commanded a much higher price than he does now.

“Even if the Angels fail to make the postseason, they’ll feel good about keeping Ohtani until free agency for a number of reasons,” the article’s author, John Paul Morosi, said, “including the marketing revenue and sponsorships he’ll generate every time he plays, and the possibility of a second MVP award in his career.

This makes sense, since income and sponsorships are related to the club’s finances, but what does it mean to say that winning the MVP is a “benefit of having him”?

As of today, Ohtani leads both leagues with 31 home runs. His projected home run total, based on the number of games his team has played and the number of games remaining, is 56. “If you think Ohtani is a global superstar, you want to keep him until he explodes in September, when he has a chance to reach 60 homers,” Morrissey said, “If you’re an Angels fan or front office, can you imagine him hitting 60 homers and winning MVP in a different team’s uniform? Wouldn’t you be devastated? That’s why the odds of trading Ohtani are low. 오래된 토토사이트

The interesting thing about this is that we don’t know if Ohtani can hit 60 homers. It’s all just probability and expectation.

Ohtani was on a better pace than this year, hitting 33 in 89 games for the 2021 team that hit 46 homers, but he only added 13 more. This year could be a repeat.

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